1/30/11

Bumps And Starts in The Tech World and Getting the Cart Before the Horse

Reading about the lightning speed the tech world evolves at can sometimes be deceiving. The latest trend about smartphones and tablets that are forecast to take over from PCs as the number one selling devices this year doesn’t tell the whole  story.

Experts who watch these things like Deloitte are telling us in their most recent technology forecasts that although the PC isn’t the only kid on the block anymore, it’s a little premature to expect that speed and capacity will be one of those factors that will improve simultaneously with availability when it comes to wireless capability for smartphones.

Deloitte’s Telecommunications Predictions 2011 report also suggests that there will be fewer than 30 LTE ( 4G) carriers in six countries that are likely to offer commercial service by the end of 2011. This has a few insiders scratching their heads since it seemed like a logical progression from the current 3G networks what with the proliferation of all the smartphones and tablets that are currently taking a huge dent out of the more traditional computing markets.

There are two reasons for the lag:

  • many mobile companies haven’t fully utilized their existing 3G spectrums.
  • as it exists today, 4G isn’t offering the quantum leap in features and speeds that other upgrades have been traditionally able to supply.

In the end it really looks like the cart is moving faster than the horse here or , put another way, technology is getting ahead of itself. This kind of news couldn’t come at a worse time  considering that the pundits at Deloitte are also predicting that there will be a big spike in the volume of data that’s going to be uploaded and downloaded from the newer devices on the market ( like the Androids ) and the variations on the existing platforms ( like the PlayBook, Research In Motion’s answer to the iPad).

Smartphones And Video Calling

Here’s another point to add to the argument. In 2011, there’s another prediction that video calling will have ironed all the bugs out and become less expensive and more widely available than ever before. However, the experts still don’t see a big boom on the horizon in sales. Bluntly put, most consumers still don’t see a need for video calling so audio will still be the favorite for at least the time being.

However there are some bright spots predicted for this year and they include the fact that the pundits see more free Wi-Fi in-store access to shoppers. It seems that retailers are now seeing that in store comparison shopping in not something to be feared after all; in fact, recent studies have shown that shoppers who can make necessary comparisons right away often make their purchases right in the location they happen to be in.

Maybe writing that the tech world is getting the cart before the horse is a little harsh but having all these new devices ready without a faster better way to deliver the information that they all promise is a little like selling somebody a plasma television when they live in an area that can’t even get HD TV, isn’t it?

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